Every ping carries a Confidence Score (0-100). It is computed by deterministic rules on the backend — no AI makes decisions, and no human hand-picks tokens. The AI only writes the one-sentence Scout's Report from numbers the engine already produced.
| Signal | Max points |
|---|---|
| Smart-wallet / unique-buyer clustering | 30 |
| Volume vs. its own baseline | 25 |
| Holder growth | 20 |
| Liquidity events (adds / locks) | 15 |
| Transaction burst | 10 |
Each token is compared against its own recent baseline (last 6 hours), not against other tokens — so a small token's breakout counts as much as a big one's. A social layer adjusts the score: mention velocity adds points, and wallets moving before mentions earns an early-signal bonus, while a social spike with no wallets behind it caps the score (bot-pump pattern).
80-100 · Strong — multiple independent signals fired together. 60-79 · Moderate — real movement, fewer confirmations. Below 60 nothing is published: no ping, no noise.
Every ping is automatically re-checked at +1h and +24h. If the token moved +15% or more in that window, the ping is a 🎯 Bullseye; otherwise it is a ✗ Miss. Misses are never deleted, never hidden, and count fully in the public hit rate on the Receipts page. Daily merkle roots of all pings are anchored on-chain, so history can't be rewritten — not even by us.
Every outcome feeds back into the system. A small in-house statistical model (logistic regression — no AI, no external service) periodically fits past bullseyes and misses and proposes a better weight set. The proposal runs in shadow mode: new pings quietly record a challenger score next to the live one, so both rule sets build a comparable track record. Nothing changes on its own — a human reviews the proposal and, only on approval, a new version goes live and appears in the changelog below. Old pings keep the version that fired them, and the on-chain anchors make the whole history tamper-evident.
| Version | Changes |
|---|---|
| v1.0.0 | Initial rule set: baseline-relative volume/buyers/tx scoring, social velocity layer, early-signal bonus, 1h dedup per token. |
Every ping stores the rule version that fired it. When rules change, old pings keep their original version — and we publish what changed here.